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Prediction for CME (2026-03-16T13:26:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-16T13:26Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45103/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2026-03-14T12:09Z. The source is an M2.7 flare and eruption from Active Region 14392 (S15E19) starting around 2026-03-13T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. A corresponding EUV wave is observed moving primarily northwest of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195/304 imagery, with post-eruptive arcades visible starting around 2026-03-16T13:00Z. | Arrival information: Analysis of the complex arrival signature over 3/19 thorugh 3/22 indicates that we likely did not observe this CME separately from the other arrival signatures, and considering it a miss.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-19T17:00Z
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (KSWC)
Prediction Method Note:

KSWC ENLIL settings:
ENLIL version: 2.7e
Resolution: low (256x30x90)
Ambient settings: a5b1
WSA version: 2.2


CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2026-03-16 19:24
Radial velocity (km/s): 546.2
Longitude (deg): -12.4
Latitude (deg): -9.2
Half-angular width (deg): 34.0

Notes:

Lead Time: 62.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by RWC KSWC (KASA) on 2026-03-17T02:27Z

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